宁波市近地层臭氧浓度变化及预测

doi:10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.01.008

Abstract

Abstract: Using environmental observation data of ozone in the surface layer, the meteorological observation data and NCEP reanalysis data form 2010 to 2013, the ozone distribution and its relevance with various environmental elements were analyzed, and a forecast model of ozone concentration was established.The results show that daily ozone concentration curve is unimodal and the peak generally appears in the afternoon in Ningbo.Meanwhile, annual variation of ozone concentration curve is bimodal and the two peaks occur in May and October, respectively.The forecast model is established by choosing daily mean pressure, vapor pressure, temperature, NO₂ concentration and SO₂ concentration which has good correlations with ozone concentration as predictors.After the evaluation, the model prediction effect is relatively good.Statistics of weather types leading to excessive ozone levels suggest that ozone pollution easily happens in several weather types such as transformed cold high pressure, uniform pressure field, upper ridge, subtropical high and peripheral tropical cyclone, and their proportions are 22.1%, 9.5%, 24.4%, 31.4% and 8.7%, while other weather types only account for 3.9%.Weather situation of each type is showed by a synthetic analysis method.

Key words: Ozone concentration, Stepwise regression, Synthetic analysis, Weather typing

CLC Number:

P421

JIANG Lu-lu, QIAN Yan-zhen, DU Kun, GU Xiao-li. Variation of ozone concentration and prediction in surface layer in Ningbo[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(1): 53-59.

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Variation of ozone concentration and prediction in surface layer in Ningbo

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